EV has two inputs. Four activities have taught you the easy one — reading the price. This one makes you produce the other. Price all seventeen NRL clubs from a blank board, before you're allowed to see what the market thinks.
| Club | Your % | Your price |
|---|
That's the whole formula, applied seventeen times. Your percentage multiplied by the price, minus one. Above zero it pays you over the long run. Below zero it doesn't, no matter how much you like the team.
The board shows twelve clubs. The NRL has seventeen. The five without a price still carry probability — so the real margin is bigger than the number above, and every fair price here is a floor rather than a truth.
And the thing worth sitting with: a green row means your number beat the market's number. It does not mean your number was right. Everything here rests on a percentage you invented. A 3.20 you disagree with by two points is a real opinion. A 251.00 you disagree with by two points is a guess wearing a big number.
Which is where a tipping service earns its money or doesn't. The formula is free. The probability isn't.