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Five activities · About ten minutes each

Expected
value

One idea, five real Australian betting boards. Nothing here is a video to watch — every activity makes you commit to a number before it tells you anything. Work through them in order. Each one assumes the last.

EV %  =  (your probability × decimal odds) − 1

Two inputs. The odds are printed on the screen — that half takes a week to learn. Your probability is the other half, and it's the one that decides whether you make money.

01
Where EV starts
Turn a price into a percentage and find the fee hiding inside a two-way NBA market. Get this wrong and every EV calculation after it is wrong too.
TAB · NBA head to head
02
The EV formula
Drag your own probability and watch expected value flip from red to green. Includes the dead zone — where you rate a team higher than the market does and it still costs you.
TAB · NBA head to head
03
EV on a ladder
An AFL goalscorer board is one distribution sliced five ways. Build the slices yourself and find out which rung is quietly the worst price on screen.
AFL · Goalscorer markets
04
EV in a field of eighteen
Strip the margin out of a futures board, build the 100% price, and learn why a 101.00 longshot almost never survives the maths.
TAB · AFL futures
05
Your own EV
Price all seventeen NRL clubs from a blank board. Balance to 100%, then see the market for the first time and find out where your EV actually sits. Shareable.
TAB · NRL futures
Every board here is a real screenshot from an Australian bookmaker, captured 20 August 2026 and deliberately left frozen. Prices move, clubs get eliminated, ladders shorten — a live board would change under you mid-lesson. These are fixed worked examples, so the numbers you calculate today are the same ones you'd calculate next year. It's the method you're after, not the number.