Honest answer: it depends on two things — how much money you're betting with, and how you handle the bad weeks. Four quick questions and we'll tell you.
1. How much money do you have set aside just for betting?
Not your savings. Not the rent buffer. The amount that lives in your betting account and nowhere else.
Could you lose every dollar of it without touching rent, bills or savings you actually need?
🛑 Then the number above is too big. Betting money is money you can lose completely and still pay every bill with a shrug. Lower the amount until "Yes" is the honest answer — there's no unit size that fixes betting money you need.
2. Where are you at with Tips with T?
Returning members should be sitting on last season's profit — that changes the maths.
3. Your bank is down 35% two months into the season. What do you honestly do?
This has genuinely happened on our record — and recovered. But only for people who were still there.
4. What matters more to you?
= 1 unit for you
0.5u · longshot sprinkle
1u · standard play
2u · stronger play
3u · max confidence
chance of going broke in one season
chance of going broke over three seasons
typical worst dip you'll sit through
9-in-10 seasons the dip stays under
How do we arrive at these numbers?
We took our real daily results since October 2021 — losing season included, easy-money 2020 markets excluded — and simulated 20,000 full seasons by reshuffling those days (one season = 220 real betting days).
"Bust" = your bank hits $0 at flat staking. Below ~155 units, bust risk passes 20%. At 400u it's ~2% a season. At 700u it's near zero — the returning tier, sized to protect banked profit.
Reality check: our worst drawdown in seven verified seasons was 378 units. A 400u bank survived it — barely. That's why 400 is the floor, not a suggestion.
Simulations: 20,000 bootstrap seasons from Tips with T's verified record (Oct 2021 → Jun 2026). 18+ · Gamble responsibly · Never bet money you can't afford to lose. Past results don't guarantee future returns.
